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Risk of Ruin Calculator

Estimate the probability of losing a specified percentage of your account based on your win rate and risk per trade.

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Risk of Ruin Calculator
Estimate the probability of losing a specified percentage of your account based on your trading statistics.

Enter your trading statistics to calculate risk of ruin

Understanding Risk of Ruin

Risk of Ruin (RoR) is the probability that a trader will lose a specified percentage of their account given their win rate, average win/loss, and risk per trade. It is one of the most important metrics for long-term trading survival.

Key Metrics Explained

  • Expectancy: The average amount you expect to win or lose per trade. Positive expectancy means your system is profitable over time.
  • Kelly Criterion: The mathematically optimal percentage of your account to risk per trade. Most traders use half-Kelly or quarter-Kelly for safety.
  • Risk of Ruin: The probability of hitting your defined ruin level. Below 1% is considered safe for professional trading.

How to Reduce Risk of Ruin

  • Reduce risk per trade (most effective lever)
  • Improve win rate through better trade selection
  • Increase average win relative to average loss
  • Combine all three for the lowest possible risk of ruin

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